Explaining Iraq, pt. 3

Question #3: Are the Iraqis in a civil war? If so, what are we doing in the middle of it?

A: Maybe. More accurately, the answer is both yes and no, but that sounds even more wishy-washy than "Maybe." Which sucks, because it's true.

One of the suggestions as to what to do with Iraq after Saddam's fall has been to parcel it out into three areas: Shia Muslim could have one place, Sunni Muslim another, and Kurdish the third.

That sounds good on its face, but in terms of practicality it's moronic. While most of the Kurdish towns are pretty much exclusively Kurdish, and there are some Sunni-only and Shia-only towns, most of the larger cities have both Sunni and Shia populations and Baghdad has members of all three groups. In order to parcel it off, you would have to figure out where majorities live and forcibly move minority populations from areas where they live.
This sort of thinking has led to interminable demands of the "Right of Return" in Israel; there is absolutely no reason to think the same thing would not happen again.

Moreover, the establishment of a Kurdish state would almost certainly trigger an armed conflict in neighboring Turkey. In fact, fear of exactly that result was cited as the primary reason they refused to allow us to stage out of Turkey for the original invasion.

So, parcelling it off is out. But not doing so results in people living side by side, many of whom harbor grudges akin to those held by the Jews against the Nazis. Saddam's regime killed tens of thousands of citizens per year and tortured even more; there is no reason to expect that the relatives of those killed, in toto, will be happy to let bygones be bygones. Instead, some of them strike back, which causes retaliation from the other side... just like in any mob war, gang war, or even the Hatfields and McCoys.
These strikes were shrinking as the unity government formed, and the Iraqis were getting a sense of value in their government as well as their religion. Then the Golden Mosque, a Shia holy site, was bombed, and it was on again.

In case you're wondering how important the mosque was, imagine someone blowing up the Statue of Liberty, or arguably even the Capitol building.

Since then, the violence has been continual, with occasional upticks and downturns corresponding to tactics and forces deployed. But, really, the violence has been almost completely isolated to four out of the 18 provinces in Iraq, those where Sunni and Shia live close together. In the remainder of the country, things have calmed down dramatically.

So, is there a civil war? Some say no, some say yes. Primarily, those that say yes are those who live in or interact with the four provinces where bombings and attacks are daily events. Those that say no live in one of the many other parts of the country.

What we're trying to do now is put a lot of police on the streets, and gather the heads of the rival gang factions to come together and talk peace again. It isn't made any easier by the fact that both groups are getting outside aid, whether from the Iranians or from the Saudis, and this has become, in effect, a proxy battle. And then, to make matters worse, we have terrorists, who hope to destabilize the country and afterward to use it as a base, playing both sides against each other by facilitating civilian, police, and military deaths for anyone in Iraq.

If this is sounding complex, I'll draw a quick analogy for those of you who have seen a lot of Mafia shows:
Two rival families are duking it out, taking each other down on the streets. Both have money and weapons coming in from their respective areas of Italy. The cops are trying to broker peace, and members of the Russian mob are picking off anyone and everyone, to increase chaos.

Now, most people understand. Almost everyone has seen Mafia shows. And hopefully, this will help give those who haven't been following everything too closely an idea of the broader picture.